01 · SIMULATE
Thousands of futures, not one guess
Nobody knows what a memecoin does next. So instead of picking one price, FATE runs thousands of plausible futures and counts what happened in them.
FATE // HOW IT WORKS
A crystal ball that keeps receipts.
FATE takes a live Solana token, plays out thousands of possible next few hours, and shows how those futures are spread. Then it writes the call down in public and checks it when time is up. Right or wrong, the result stays on the record.
02 · RECORD
Calls are written down first
A recorded prophecy gets its own page, ID and receipt before the outcome is known. It cannot be edited, hidden or deleted afterwards.
03 · GRADE
Marked against what really happened
When the clock runs out FATE compares the call with the market and publishes the result on the scoreboard, including the misses.
FROM TOKEN TO RESULT
- 01
Pick a token
Search by ticker, name or contract address. Many tokens share a name, so FATE shows each match with its market cap, liquidity, age and address so you can pick the right one.
- 02
Take a snapshot
FATE freezes the token as it is right now: market cap, liquidity, trading volume, buy and sell flow, momentum, age, volatility and how concentrated the holders are. If a number is not available it is shown as missing, never made up.
- 03
Read the mood
The token is matched to a market regime: brand new, running on momentum, wildly volatile, being sold into, thin on liquidity, or mature. The match is blended rather than forced into one box, because real tokens sit between them.
- 04
Play out the futures
Each simulated future is a minute-by-minute path. It drifts, wobbles with the token’s own volatility, and can suddenly pump or crash. Glimpse runs 1,000 paths, Vision 10,000, and Prophecy 100,000.
- 05
Correct for overconfidence
Raw simulation frequency is not the same as real-world odds, so each horizon is calibrated against past results. Until there is enough data, FATE labels the model CALIBRATING and says so on screen.
- 06
Show the spread
You get probabilities and a fan chart of where the futures landed. Not one price, not a target: the whole spread, including the ugly tail.
READING THE CHART
- Past reality. The white line left of NOW is recorded market cap. If FATE has not tracked the token yet it is built from the price changes DEX Screener reports, and the chart says so.
- NOW. The dashed line is the moment of the snapshot. Everything to its right is simulated, not real.
- The fan. Each shaded band holds a share of the futures: the darkest band is the middle half (P25 to P75), the wider ones P10 to P90 and P05 to P95.
- The bright line. P50, the median future. Half the simulated futures ended above it and half below.
THE NUMBERS ON THE RIGHT
- End above current
- The share of simulated futures that finished the chosen window above today’s market cap. 46% means 46 out of every 100 simulated futures ended higher. It does not mean the token will.
- Touch +50% / Touch 2X
- The share of futures that reached that level at any moment, even if they fell back afterwards. This is always at least as high as “end above”.
- −30% drawdown
- The share of futures that dropped at least 30% below the start at some point. A high number is a warning about how bumpy the ride can be.
- Median future (P50)
- The middle outcome. Half of the futures ended above it, half below. P10 and P90 are the unlucky and lucky ends: only 1 in 10 futures finished below P10 or above P90.
- Convergence
- A 0 to 100 score for how strongly the futures agree. It measures agreement, not certainty: every future can agree and still be wrong. Low data quality or too few paths pull the score down.
WHAT IF?
The scenario cards re-run the simulation with something changed: the biggest holders sell, a 100 SOL buy lands, or a 100 SOL sell hits. Compare each against the baseline to see how fragile or strong the picture is. Scenarios are previews and are never recorded.
HOW A PROPHECY GETS GRADED
- Watching. While a prophecy is open, FATE keeps sampling the token’s market cap. Short horizons are sampled more often.
- Coverage. At the deadline FATE checks how much of the window it actually saw.
- Verdict. With good coverage, every target resolves to TRUE or FALSE. If a level was crossed, it is TRUE. If it was not and coverage was good, it is FALSE.
- UNVERIFIED. If coverage was too thin to know, the call is marked UNVERIFIED. It is never counted as right or wrong.
- Scoreboard. Directional accuracy, calibration and the Brier score are published only after enough graded prophecies exist. Before that the board reads CALIBRATING instead of showing a flattering number.
WHAT FATE IS NOT
- It is not financial advice, a price target or a signal to buy or sell.
- It does not trade, hold funds or connect to your wallet.
- It cannot see rug pulls, bundled wallets or news coming. It sees the market as it is at the snapshot.
- Small, new tokens can lose most of their value in minutes. A model is not a safety net. Read the risk disclosure.
QUESTIONS
Is this a price prediction?
No. FATE shows how often each outcome happened across thousands of simulated futures. A 70% outcome still fails 3 times out of 10, and FATE shows you those misses too.
What does a recorded prophecy add over a preview?
A preview is a real run that is not saved. Pressing RUN FATE records a prophecy with its own page, ID and receipt (the snapshot and settings behind it). It cannot be edited or deleted, and it is graded when its time is up.
Can I check a result myself?
Yes. The engine is deterministic: the same snapshot, settings and seed give the same result, and each prophecy stores what is needed to re-run it.
Why does a prophecy say UNVERIFIED?
Grading needs enough observations of the token during the window. If FATE did not see enough of it to know whether a target was hit, it says UNVERIFIED instead of guessing. Unverified calls are never counted as right or wrong.
How long until a prophecy is graded?
When its horizon ends: 5, 15, 30, 60, 120 or 240 minutes after it was recorded.
Where does the data come from?
Market data comes from DEX Screener. Token supply and holder concentration come from the Solana network. Everything is labelled with how fresh and complete it is.
Is the model accurate?
Look at the scoreboard rather than taking our word for it. Accuracy numbers appear only once enough prophecies have been graded; before that the model reads CALIBRATING.
Does FATE touch my wallet or trade for me?
Never. There are no accounts and no wallet connections. FATE only reads public market data.
See where your token is heading.
FATE provides probabilistic simulations, not guarantees. Historical performance does not ensure future results.