FATE // SCOREBOARD

FATE grades itself in public.

Metrics appear only past a sample threshold. Tiny samples are shown as CALIBRATING, never as accuracy.

OVERALL · ALL

2 resolved · 0 open · 0 unverified

Resolved samples 2 / 100 required · STATUS CALIBRATING

CALIBRATING — not enough resolved samples

RELIABILITY

Reliability unlocks once the sample threshold is reached.

BY HORIZON

HorizonSamplesStatusDirectionBrierECE

5M 0 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

15M 0 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

30M 0 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

60M 2 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

120M 0 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

240M 0 / 100 CALIBRATING — — —

VERIFIED TARGET EVENTS

UNVERIFIED events are never counted as FALSE. Only adequately observed intervals can be verified.

Verified target eventTRUEFALSEUNVERIFIEDVerified rate

UP250200%

UP500200%

UP1000200%

DD2011050%

DD3011050%

DD5011050%

DD800200%

TARGET000—

Probabilities describe simulated futures, not certainty. FATE keeps failed prophecies public.