FATE // RESOLVED 000001
$SWITCH
Switch Coin
CrjvEtPUj5nE7iTf5JH787QyBGsF7xPQ5HahnGxnPBf3
FUTURES100,000
HORIZON60 MIN
DEPTHPROPHECY
SCENARIObaseline
CAPTURED$10.8K
STATUSRESOLVED
FATE SAW47.5%
REALITY-37.6%
RESULTDIRECTION CORRECT
ENDING MARKET CAP$6.8K
MAX UPSIDE+17.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN51.7%
+25% touchedNO
+50% touchedNO
2× touchedNO
-20% drawdown touchedYES
-30% drawdown touchedYES
-50% drawdown touchedYES
-80% drawdown touchedNO
Observation quality: good · 32 observations. Resolved with coarse sampling can miss intraminute wicks.
SIMULATED PROBABILITIES
END ABOVE CURRENT47.5%
END BELOW CURRENT52.5%
TOUCH +25%68.7%
TOUCH +50%67.2%
TOUCH +100%68.4%
-20% DRAWDOWN57.7%
-30% DRAWDOWN56.1%
-50% DRAWDOWN63.6%
-80% DRAWDOWN4.4%
Probabilities describe the share of simulated futures, not certainty. Never a guarantee of price movement.
SIMULATED DISTRIBUTION
Percentile paths across 100,000 simulated futures. Not a single predicted future.
median (P50) P25–P75 P05–P95
P10$3.0K
P25$6.8K
P75$40.0K
P90$91.1K
CONVERGENCE30 / 100
DATA QUALITYMEDIUM
MODELFATE-MC-2
REPRODUCIBILITY
market snapshotSNAP-68396EA978C6
input hash639160cfa9707ef6ef5e…
parameter versionfate-v2-params-2026-10-05
calibration versionplatt-FATE-MC-2-60m-2026-10-05
seedCrjvEtPUj5nE7iTf5JH787Qy…
generated3h ago
Experimental probabilistic market simulation. Not financial advice, not a guarantee of price movement, and not a substitute for your own risk assessment. This prophecy is part of an immutable public record.