FATE // RESOLVED 000004
$Fulnecky
Samantha Fulnecky
F5VdbmjLNEXoyeKuLG4kQvy39BDwq8PjY9DiMUdMkyC6
FUTURES1,000
HORIZON60 MIN
DEPTHGLIMPSE
SCENARIObaseline
CAPTURED$34.2K
STATUSRESOLVED
FATE SAW45.9%
REALITY-81.7%
RESULTDIRECTION CORRECT
ENDING MARKET CAP$6.3K
MAX UPSIDE+10.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN81.7%
+25% touchedNO
+50% touchedNO
2× touchedNO
-20% drawdown touchedYES
-30% drawdown touchedYES
-50% drawdown touchedYES
-80% drawdown touchedYES
Observation quality: good · 58 observations. Resolved with coarse sampling can miss intraminute wicks.
SIMULATED PROBABILITIES
END ABOVE CURRENT45.9%
END BELOW CURRENT54.1%
TOUCH +25%65.7%
TOUCH +50%63.2%
TOUCH +100%65.4%
-20% DRAWDOWN61.0%
-30% DRAWDOWN63.0%
-50% DRAWDOWN72.3%
-80% DRAWDOWN7.8%
Probabilities describe the share of simulated futures, not certainty. Never a guarantee of price movement.
SIMULATED DISTRIBUTION
Percentile paths across 1,000 simulated futures. Not a single predicted future.
median (P50) P25–P75 P05–P95
P10$7.8K
P25$16.0K
P75$127.5K
P90$297.8K
CONVERGENCE25 / 100
DATA QUALITYMEDIUM
MODELFATE-MC-2
REPRODUCIBILITY
market snapshotSNAP-D5F91AF8FA82
input hasheffc5ca57eb4800fc4fe…
parameter versionfate-v2-params-2026-10-05
calibration versionplatt-FATE-MC-2-60m-2026-10-05
seedF5VdbmjLNEXoyeKuLG4kQvy3…
generated2h ago
Experimental probabilistic market simulation. Not financial advice, not a guarantee of price movement, and not a substitute for your own risk assessment. This prophecy is part of an immutable public record.