FATE // BROKEN PROPHECY 000005
$FATE
FATE
9y7ij6Js8bTtswvE1WZWfgJaQQYhg9iJFov1SJyHpump
FUTURES1,000
HORIZON60 MIN
DEPTHGLIMPSE
SCENARIObaseline
CAPTURED$11.3K
STATUSRESOLVED
FATE SAW47.4%
REALITY+45.3%
RESULTDIRECTION WRONG
ENDING MARKET CAP$16.3K
MAX UPSIDE+74.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN17.6%
+25% touchedYES
+50% touchedYES
2× touchedNO
-20% drawdown touchedNO
-30% drawdown touchedNO
-50% drawdown touchedNO
-80% drawdown touchedNO
Observation quality: good · 70 observations. Resolved with coarse sampling can miss intraminute wicks.
SIMULATED PROBABILITIES
END ABOVE CURRENT47.4%
END BELOW CURRENT52.6%
TOUCH +25%69.5%
TOUCH +50%68.9%
TOUCH +100%71.1%
-20% DRAWDOWN61.0%
-30% DRAWDOWN61.6%
-50% DRAWDOWN70.2%
-80% DRAWDOWN7.5%
Probabilities describe the share of simulated futures, not certainty. Never a guarantee of price movement.
SIMULATED DISTRIBUTION
Percentile paths across 1,000 simulated futures. Not a single predicted future.
median (P50) P25–P75 P05–P95
P10$2.5K
P25$6.4K
P75$44.8K
P90$110.4K
CONVERGENCE23 / 100
DATA QUALITYMEDIUM
MODELFATE-MC-2
REPRODUCIBILITY
market snapshotSNAP-313D815CC585
input hashe4f8fdc99e08d53bd942…
parameter versionfate-v2-params-2026-10-05
calibration versionplatt-FATE-MC-2-60m-2026-10-05
seed9y7ij6Js8bTtswvE1WZWfgJa…
generated2h ago
Experimental probabilistic market simulation. Not financial advice, not a guarantee of price movement, and not a substitute for your own risk assessment. This prophecy is part of an immutable public record.